Nairobi · Published audit
Which historical events
improve explanatory fit?
FCTE · Scenario Validation
Backtest at a glance
- historical events tested
- 10
- confirmed explanatory signals
- 4
- other / review outcomes
- 6
- Confirmed explanatory signal4
- No confirmed signal in available benchmark window3
- Recalibration review candidate3
Controlled backtest outcomes; not a measure of real-world accuracy.
- Historical event
- Controlled backtest
- Published outcome
Event-by-event public status
Confirmed signals improved explanatory fit in the controlled backtest. Exact error deltas and model-response trajectories are not public.
All 10 published event outcomes
| Historical event | Public validation outcome |
|---|---|
| Fertility Decline Resumption | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| Family Planning Programme Intensification | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| East Africa Drought | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| Asian Financial Crisis Impact | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| 2007-08 Post-Election Violence | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| COVID-19 Pandemic | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| Structural Adjustment Programme | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| Fertility Decline Stall | Recalibration review candidate |
| Post-COVID Economic Recovery | Recalibration review candidate |
| National Family Planning Programme Launch | Recalibration review candidate |
Public evidence.
Controlled methods.
Published evidence
- External benchmark families
- Historical event identity
- Categorical validation status
Controlled methodology pack
- Exact error scores & index-year selection
- Scenario curves & coefficients
- Recalibration values
Public audit view. Release-level findings, evidence categories and outcomes are shown here. Internal identifiers, physical mappings, exact thresholds, calibration parameters, repair mechanics and orchestration remain controlled.
Source: release-level event-ablation validation against external fertility benchmark families. Exact scenario metrics and calibration parameters are withheld from the public website.
Published report · PDF
Nairobi · Event ablation report
The PDF contains the published report and its source context. Review the stated scope with each result.
Read the report here or download the PDF below.