Nairobi · Audit report
Which historical events improve explanatory fit?
FCTE · Scenario Validation
Published audit report · Read the scope with the result
Public audit view. Release-level findings, evidence categories and outcomes are shown here. Internal identifiers, physical mappings, exact thresholds, calibration parameters, repair mechanics and orchestration remain controlled.
Audit summary
Backtest at a glance
Public event-ablation coverage and categorical outcomes.
Ablation outcomes
Event-by-event public status
A confirmed signal means the event improved explanatory fit in the controlled backtest. The public site deliberately avoids publishing exact error deltas or model-response trajectories.
| Historical event | Public validation outcome |
|---|---|
| Fertility Decline Resumption | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| Family Planning Programme Intensification | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| East Africa Drought | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| Asian Financial Crisis Impact | Confirmed explanatory signal |
| 2007-08 Post-Election Violence | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| COVID-19 Pandemic | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| Structural Adjustment Programme | No confirmed signal in available benchmark window |
| Fertility Decline Stall | Recalibration review candidate |
| Post-COVID Economic Recovery | Recalibration review candidate |
| National Family Planning Programme Launch | Recalibration review candidate |
Method boundary
Evidence is visible; calibration mechanics are not
External benchmark families, event identity and categorical validation status are public. Exact error scores, index-year selection, scenario curves, coefficients and recalibration values are part of the controlled methodology pack.
Source: release-level event-ablation validation against external fertility benchmark families. Exact scenario metrics and calibration parameters are withheld from the public website.