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Lagos · Published audit

Which historical events
improve explanatory fit?

FCTE · Scenario Validation

Event-ablation reportStatus updated
← Back to Evidence
Original conceptual illustration of a city model passing through inspection frames
Inspect the model. Read the outcome.

Source & scope

Published evidence

Lagos’s evidence library ↗
01

Backtest at a glance

historical events tested
8
confirmed explanatory signals
8
other / review outcomes
0
Published outcomes
  • Confirmed and implemented8
  • No confirmed signal in available benchmark window0
  • Recalibration review candidate0

Controlled backtest outcomes; not a measure of real-world accuracy.

  1. Historical event
  2. Controlled backtest
  3. Published outcome
02

Event-by-event public status

All 8 historical event signals are confirmed and implemented. Exact error deltas and model-response trajectories are not public.

All 8 published event outcomes

Lagos event-ablation implementation status, updated 2026-10-10
Historical eventPublic validation outcome
FP2020 Commitment / Renewed Family Planning PushConfirmed and implemented
Boko Haram Insurgency DisplacementConfirmed and implemented
Structural Adjustment Programme (Nigeria)Confirmed and implemented
National Policy on Population for DevelopmentConfirmed and implemented
Nigerian Oil BoomConfirmed and implemented
COVID-19 Pandemic (Nigeria)Confirmed and implemented
Nigerian Civil War (Biafra)Confirmed and implemented
Fertility Decline Stall/ReboundConfirmed and implemented
03

Public evidence.
Controlled methods.

Published evidence

  • External benchmark families
  • Historical event identity
  • Categorical validation status

Controlled methodology pack

  • Exact error scores & index-year selection
  • Scenario curves & coefficients
  • Recalibration values

Public audit view. Release-level findings, evidence categories and outcomes are shown here. Internal identifiers, physical mappings, exact thresholds, calibration parameters, repair mechanics and orchestration remain controlled.

Source: release-level event-ablation validation against external fertility benchmark families. Exact scenario metrics and calibration parameters are withheld from the public website.

Published report · PDF

Lagos · Event ablation report

The PDF contains the published report and its source context. Review the stated scope with each result.

Read the report here or download the PDF below.

Download Lagos · Event ablation report PDF