Nairobi · Audit report
Housing → utility connection relationship trace
FCTE · Cross-Domain Relationship Audit
The bias is live, and it's the expected size
The latest public revalidation state for the housing-informality utility-connection bias, Nairobi.
What the audit establishes
Connection rate is measured as households carrying a live row in the domain's connection, meter or subscriber table, divided by all households in that housing-formality class with a current tenancy.
| Domain | Formal connection rate | Informal connection rate | Ratio | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water | 11.77% | 5.86% | 2.01× | PASS |
| Power | 11.73% | 5.91% | 1.98× | PASS |
| Gas | 11.70% | 5.99% | 1.95× | PASS |
| Wastewater | 10.10% | 5.00% | 2.02× | PASS |
| Energy | 14.35% | 7.12% | 2.01× | PASS |
Every domain lands within a narrow band around 2.0×, which is exactly what the design should produce: the generation method gives informal-housing households @InformalConnectionOddsPct = 50 — half the formal-housing odds — on an otherwise identical random draw. Historical defect counts and the exact draw formula are retained in the controlled engineering audit pack rather than the public website.
Follow three real households through the same release run
Pulled live from the same 300,000-row generation release run used for the table above — not a curated or hand-picked outcome.
| Citizen | Household | Ward | Housing | Water | Power | Gas | Wastewater | Energy | Connected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muthoni Ngugi | #27 | Mowlem | Informal | — | — | — | — | — | 0 / 5 |
| Kanini Nkeri | #51 | Lucky Summer | Informal | — | Connected | — | Connected | Connected | 3 / 5 |
| Gakii Kirimi | #49129 | Harambee | Formal | Connected | Connected | Connected | Connected | Connected | 5 / 5 |
Muthoni and Kanini carry the identical informal-housing penalty on the identical draw mechanism — the different outcome is exactly what a probabilistic bias should produce: informal housing halves the odds per domain, it does not remove them. Gakii's household, in formal housing, had no penalty applied on any of the five draws.
Transparent outcome, controlled internal methods
Source: live NairobiCityDB generation release run (300,000 rows per domain) and release-level certification evidence, queried 2026-08-09. Public reporting is intentionally semantic; Internal mapping and remediation methods are controlled. Not yet independently re-verified against a Lagos-scale release run — see the Lagos edition of this audit for that status.